CURRENT SPACE WEATHER CONDITIONS on NOAA Scales

 Caros Leitores;

Grande explosão solar causa blecaute de rádio em todo o território dos EUA

3-DAY FORECAST

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Oct 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 03-Oct 05 2022 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 03-Oct 05 2022

            Oct 03     Oct 04     Oct 05
00-03UT        4          6 (G2)     5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          6 (G2)     5 (G1)
06-09UT        3          5 (G1)     4     
09-12UT        2          5 (G1)     3     
12-15UT        2          3          2     
15-18UT        2          3          2     
18-21UT        3          4          2     
21-00UT        5 (G1)     5 (G1)     2     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on
03-05 Oct due to a combination of CH HSS effects and the potential for a
glancing blow from the 01 Oct CMEs on 03-04 Oct.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 03-Oct 05 2022

              Oct 03  Oct 04  Oct 05
S1 or greater   40%     40%     40%

Rationale: There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1-Minor) on 03-05 Oct due to flare potential of Regions 3110 and 3112.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 02 2022 2025 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 03-Oct 05 2022

              Oct 03        Oct 04        Oct 05
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be high with M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flare activity expected and a chance for X-class
(R3-Strong) flare activity over 03-05 Oct.

Publicado 03-10-2022

Fonte: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

Web Science Academy; Hélio R.M.Cabral (Economista, Escritor e Divulgador de conteúdos da Astronomia, Astrofísica, Astrobiologia e Climatologia).Participou do curso (EAD) de Astrofísica, concluído em 2020, pela Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)

Autor do livro: “Conhecendo o Sol e outras Estrelas”.

Acompanha e divulga os conteúdos científicos da NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), ESA (European Space Agency) e outras organizações científicas e tecnológicas.

Participa do projeto S`Cool Ground Observation (Observações de Nuvens) que é integrado ao Projeto CERES (Clouds and Earth´s Radiant Energy System) administrado pela NASA. A partir de 2019, tornou-se membro da Sociedade Astronômica Brasileira (SAB), como astrônomo amador.

Participa também do projeto The Globe Program / NASA Globe Cloud, um Programa de Ciência e Educação Worldwide, que também tem o objetivo de monitorar o Clima em toda a Terra. Este projeto é patrocinado pela NASA e National Science Fundation (NSF), e apoiado pela National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) e U.S Department of State.

e-mail: heliocabral@coseno.com.br

Page: http://pesqciencias.blogspot.com.br

Page: http://livroseducacionais.blogspot.com.br